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Paused war or punishment of an international criminal: what will the world choose?

Виктор ШлинчакВиктор Шлинчак

Paused war or punishment of an international criminal: what will the world choose?
Paused war or punishment of an international criminal: what will the world choose?

Recent publications in the Western media about Ukraine's alleged agreement with the West to pause the war at the cost of (temporarily) giving up the occupied Ukrainian territories in favor of Russia look like a proposal scenario addressed primarily to Moscow, not to us.

It seems that the United States, Germany, and some other countries want to repeat the previous failed Ukrainian experiment and "look into Putin's eyes." But I don't see any motive for him to make any concessions now, as long as he has a strategic goal of pushing the West down completely and returning to the era of the Warsaw Pact, where Russia rules most of Europe.

Now the proposal in the media (from the West) sounds simple: we need to meet with Putin somewhere in the middle to buy time to freeze the conflict while he is alive, and as soon as a window of opportunity opens (in 5-7-10 years), move to a diplomatic settlement.

But as soon as the topic of some kind of agreement is raised, Russia will do the opposite, increasing the rattling of weapons, because its goal is not Vuhledar or even Pokrovsk. It needs to win a psychological war so that sholts and macrons will be drawn to Moscow to bow. It wants Russia to be returned to the G8 and everyone to expect Putin's next hour-long delay in taking pictures of the presidents. For sanctions to be lifted. If they recognized that supporting Ukraine is unprofitable and expensive.

Therefore, in principle, it is not even interesting to discuss which village might be the line of temporary demarcation if Putin will not under any circumstances agree to an agreement solely to "end the war in Ukraine." Because his desired profit - I repeat - is not in bombed villages. It is in recognition. Recognition of his victory over the collective West, which has failed to act in a timely, tough and decisive manner. Since 2008, by the way.

And here I have a big question for the leaders of the West: are they ready to bring him back to the table to serve him drinks at the buffet and then pay tribute, or are they willing to do everything to prove their pan-European capability and punish an international criminal at the cost (including their ratings)? I suspect that this is the dilemma that will be the main focus of discussion in the coming months.